Popular betting platform Polymarket has exposed the name of a significant trader behind almost $28 million in bets backing Donald Trump’s prospects in the forthcoming U.S. presidential election. Connected to four accounts—Fredi 999, Theo 4, Princess Caro, and Michie—this French individual, possessing exceptional financial and trading skills, significantly contributes to Trump’s success.
As of now, Polymarket’s odds indicate that Trump is the preferred candidate to win in all six swing states. According to company officials, their research revealed no evidence of market manipulation. To avoid influencing the market dynamics, they observed that traders spread their bets across multiple smaller ones.
Concerned about possible manipulation, Polymarket investigated further after observing a change in betting trends toward Trump. In response to these concerns, Kalshi’s founder presented evidence demonstrating that the probability on Polymarket accurately reflects the actual market mood. Working solely in the United States, Kalshi found similar patterns indicating Trump’s rivalry with Vice President Kamala Harris.
Over the previous few months, Trump’s betting odds have shown clear swings. Harris led strongly at first, with her odds in August topping Trump’s by as much as 10%. But by late September, the contest had tightened significantly, with both contenders neck and nose-first as the election date draws near.
While some critics argue that platforms like Polymarket may not be as reliable as traditional polling methods, proponents argue that these platforms, driven by financial incentives that encourage precise forecasting, provide a valuable insight into public sentiment. As the election approaches, the platform continues to get a lot of attention, even if Trump’s chances of winning seem higher than those of certain polling models.
