Early on November 13, FBI investigators raided the Manhattan residence of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan, a distributed prediction market platform. The agents did not detain Coplan, instead seizing his phone and electronic gadgets. Polymarket confirmed the attack, with a platform spokesman indicating its political motivation stemming from the anticipated 2024 presidential victory of Donald Trump.
Since Polymarket’s prediction market heavily favored Trump prior to the election, in contrast to public surveys, the raid has sparked allegations of political retaliation. Despite the ban on U.S. citizens, many circumvent this restriction by using VPNs; the platform allows users to bet on a variety of events, including elections.
Given that Polymarket had fairly projected the election outcomes, the spokesman of the platform attacked the moves as “obvious political retribution” by the departing government. Coplan himself voiced annoyance, labeling the attack “discouraging” and charging the government with focusing on businesses connected to political rivals.
Although the FBI has not made public a justification for the raid, reports indicate that the government may be looking at Polymarket for claimed market manipulation or forecast rigging in favor of Trump. This follows Polymarket’s under-examination market behavior, including the use of significant bets by foreign users—especially a well-known person known as the “Polymarket whale.”
Despite having paid a fine for providing unregistered event markets, the attack is driven by Polymarket’s revelation that it intends to re-enter the U.S. market. Despite the ongoing FBI probe, Polymarket remains committed to its mission of providing public open forecasts. The episode has resulted in strong criticism; tech and cryptocurrency companies have banded together in favor of Coplan and the platform’s non-partisan posture.
