Elon Musk recently brought attention to the decentralized prediction market Polymarket, saying that it can make more correct predictions about the 2024 U.S. presidential election than standard polling methods. This endorsement comes at a time when Musk has been supporting former President Donald Trump more and more at campaign events.
Musk said on the social media site X that Polymarket’s estimates are affected by real-world financial risks. As of October 6, the platform showed that Trump had a three-point lead over Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate. Bets can be made on Polymarket using USD Coin on the results of different events. This makes the site a major player in the prediction market.
Trump now leading Kamala by 3% in betting markets. More accurate than polls, as actual money is on the line. https://t.co/WrsqZ2z8pp
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 7, 2024
Many people think that having money behind your predictions makes them more accurate, but it’s still not clear how well Polymarket really captures general opinion. Critics say that betting on a candidate doesn’t always mean that someone agrees with their political views. For example, someone could back one candidate while betting on another to win.
There is a lot of interest on the platform, especially in guesses about who Satoshi Nakamoto, Bitcoin’s mysterious creator, is as people wait for the reveal on HBO. The betting pool on this riddle has almost hit $400,000. Many users are making guesses about different possible suspects.
Many people have already seen Musk’s most recent tweet, which has been viewed millions of times and started conversations about how prediction markets work compared to standard voting methods. As Polymarket’s fame grows, we will keep a close eye on how it changes how people think about political events and election results.
